PRISM's latest public S&P 500 (US500) forecast, issued Wed 11 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTC, puts the central expected close at 7,601.698 by Fri 13 Nov, 21:00 UTC (−0.25% from 7,620.483), with an 80% range of 7,482.024 to 7,740.727. The expected move is down, but this is a probabilistic model forecast, not a prediction or advice: about one close in five is expected to land outside the range.
The S&P 500, the broad index of large US companies, quoted in index points. Earnings, Federal Reserve expectations and bond yields move it; outside US cash hours it trades thinner as a future or CFD.
Earlier archived issue. Check the issue time; this is a saved forecast, not a new live update.
The forecast for S&P 500 (US500) issued on Wed 11 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTC started from 7,620.483 (index points). Its central expected close at the end of the 48-hour horizon, Fri 13 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTC, is 7,601.698, a change of −0.25%. The 80% range for that close runs from 7,482.024 to 7,740.727 — about ±1.70% around the start; in the model's own simulation, eight closes in ten land inside it. The expected move points down, but it is small next to the range (15% of its half-width), so the range matters more than the direction. 44% of the 256 simulated paths ended above the start, which is within the ±6 points of 50% that the model treats as no clear edge.
The most recent issue the site has archived. Members see the current issue, the full candle path on four timeframes, the odds of reaching the next move and the AI news briefing.
Each forecast is scored only after its exact 48-hour window has closed and every hourly candle has been observed, against the close of the final hour. No substitute closing candle is used. The scored forecasts are the ones issued on the hour and their 48-hour windows overlap, so 50 issues cover only about 8 days of market moves — these numbers swing a lot and say little on their own. Direction is scored only for up/down calls; “about flat” calls count only for the range.
| Issued (UTC) | Start | Central close | 80% range | Call | Actual close | Direction | In range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 11:00 | 7,557.225 | 7,557.680 | 7,366.324 – 7,710.902 | about flat | 7,590.001 +0.43% | – | ✓ |
| 10 Nov, 10:00 | 7,564.833 | 7,563.923 | 7,427.006 – 7,706.056 | about flat | 7,595.128 +0.40% | – | ✓ |
| 10 Nov, 09:00 | 7,568.334 | 7,576.276 | 7,409.815 – 7,745.189 | about flat | 7,586.616 +0.24% | – | ✓ |
| 10 Nov, 08:00 | 7,561.072 | 7,564.779 | 7,406.860 – 7,699.539 | about flat | 7,585.739 +0.33% | – | ✓ |
| 10 Nov, 07:00 | 7,567.683 | 7,564.750 | 7,410.744 – 7,717.526 | about flat | 7,583.869 +0.21% | – | ✓ |
| 10 Nov, 06:00 | 7,567.334 | 7,563.429 | 7,412.882 – 7,750.383 | about flat | 7,581.619 +0.19% | – | ✓ |
| 10 Nov, 05:00 | 7,559.069 | 7,583.678 | 7,384.150 – 7,724.711 | bullish | 7,591.122 +0.42% | ✓ | ✓ |
| 10 Nov, 04:00 | 7,551.936 | 7,560.978 | 7,404.594 – 7,704.811 | about flat | 7,592.125 +0.53% | – | ✓ |
| 10 Nov, 03:00 | 7,558.578 | 7,565.767 | 7,425.101 – 7,720.459 | about flat | 7,597.628 +0.52% | – | ✓ |
| 10 Nov, 02:00 | 7,559.695 | 7,554.951 | 7,414.866 – 7,716.405 | about flat | 7,593.366 +0.45% | – | ✓ |
| 10 Nov, 01:00 | 7,548.316 | 7,548.701 | 7,389.399 – 7,690.765 | about flat | 7,584.622 +0.48% | – | ✓ |
| 10 Nov, 00:00 | 7,558.584 | 7,573.387 | 7,392.808 – 7,721.539 | about flat | 7,582.248 +0.31% | – | ✓ |
| 9 Nov, 21:00 | 7,549.294 | 7,540.830 | 7,391.589 – 7,679.268 | about flat | 7,620.504 +0.94% | – | ✓ |
| 9 Nov, 20:00 | 7,562.115 | 7,579.460 | 7,393.048 – 7,715.261 | bullish | 7,626.335 +0.85% | ✓ | ✓ |
| 9 Nov, 19:00 | 7,550.879 | 7,546.853 | 7,398.426 – 7,687.539 | about flat | 7,642.646 +1.22% | – | ✓ |
| 9 Nov, 18:00 | 7,547.359 | 7,550.210 | 7,396.586 – 7,703.446 | about flat | 7,634.052 +1.15% | – | ✓ |
| 9 Nov, 17:00 | 7,534.469 | 7,545.539 | 7,356.835 – 7,702.536 | about flat | 7,623.579 +1.18% | – | ✓ |
| 9 Nov, 16:00 | 7,540.071 | 7,542.188 | 7,384.329 – 7,726.219 | about flat | 7,609.263 +0.92% | – | ✓ |
| 9 Nov, 15:00 | 7,501.234 | 7,512.267 | 7,345.560 – 7,651.456 | about flat | 7,585.671 +1.13% | – | ✓ |
| 9 Nov, 14:00 | 7,444.634 | 7,462.023 | 7,314.626 – 7,603.131 | bullish | 7,596.579 +2.04% | ✓ | ✓ |
| 9 Nov, 13:00 | 7,445.433 | 7,443.432 | 7,307.168 – 7,592.258 | about flat | 7,586.335 +1.89% | – | ✓ |
| 9 Nov, 12:00 | 7,423.066 | 7,425.079 | 7,292.991 – 7,559.246 | about flat | 7,587.341 +2.21% | – | ✗ |
| 9 Nov, 11:00 | 7,416.828 | 7,418.801 | 7,269.362 – 7,559.538 | about flat | 7,580.073 +2.20% | – | ✗ |
| 9 Nov, 10:00 | 7,405.825 | 7,413.255 | 7,261.029 – 7,564.246 | about flat | 7,578.085 +2.33% | – | ✗ |
| 9 Nov, 09:00 | 7,405.204 | 7,431.488 | 7,238.716 – 7,554.456 | bullish | 7,575.579 +2.30% | ✓ | ✗ |
| 9 Nov, 08:00 | 7,368.584 | 7,366.105 | 7,230.498 – 7,518.428 | about flat | 7,568.829 +2.72% | – | ✗ |
| 9 Nov, 07:00 | 7,400.072 | 7,401.929 | 7,249.841 – 7,549.905 | about flat | 7,569.199 +2.29% | – | ✗ |
| 9 Nov, 06:00 | 7,404.183 | 7,404.918 | 7,239.722 – 7,562.431 | about flat | 7,566.091 +2.19% | – | ✗ |
| 9 Nov, 05:00 | 7,424.584 | 7,440.007 | 7,271.808 – 7,583.054 | about flat | 7,567.588 +1.93% | – | ✓ |
| 9 Nov, 04:00 | 7,420.069 | 7,423.213 | 7,287.949 – 7,583.621 | about flat | 7,567.838 +1.99% | – | ✓ |
The newest 30 of 125 scored forecasts are listed; the summary covers the newest 50.
Earlier archive entries and briefing-tracker results are retained, but they use the previous method and do not contribute to the corrected percentages above.
Model forecasts are recorded independently of the AI news briefing. An unavailable briefing does not stop model tracking. Missing historical briefings are never reconstructed. Only a complete observed 48-hour window is scored. A window still incomplete five days after its horizon is marked unscored; no nearby candle stands in for the missing close.
More in How we forecast, including what the 80% range means. Prices come from public data feeds and can differ slightly from your broker's quotes.
Every 15 minutes while the market is open, PRISM's model reads the recent S&P 500 (US500) candles on four timeframes (15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and daily) and simulates 256 possible paths for the next 48 hours. This page summarises them as a central expected close and an 80% range, shown one issue behind the live forecast. Each forecast is fixed when it is issued and never revised.
Of its newest 50 scored forecasts (4 Nov – 10 Nov 2026), 28 of 50 (56%) closed inside the 80% range, against a target of 80%, and 4 of 4 up/down calls (100%) had the direction right. The central close missed the real close by 1.77% on average. Hourly forecasts overlap, so this is a small sample that can swing a lot.
It is the band that holds the middle 80% of the model's 256 simulated closes at the end of the 48 hours. If the model were perfectly calibrated, about eight closes in ten would land inside it and one in five outside; the track record on this page shows how often that actually held.
No. It is model output about probabilities, published for information only. It does not know your positions or goals, past results do not guarantee future ones, and trading can lose you money.